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Population and Economic Trends: The South Florida Impact

Population and Economic Trends: The South Florida Impact January 26, 211 Compiled By: Rick Gilbert, Research Manager for the Sun Sentinel and Orlando Sentinel Overview New 21
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Population and Economic Trends: The South Florida Impact January 26, 211 Compiled By: Rick Gilbert, Research Manager for the Sun Sentinel and Orlando Sentinel Overview New 21 Census Data what s now available and what we can expect to be released throughout the year. Annual population change trends for Broward County and the South Florida metro area. Components of South Florida s population change (migration, etc.) Taxable Sales Trends Unemployment Trends Inflation Trends Real Estate Trends Florida Consumer Confidence Trends New 21 US Census Data Ranked by 21 Population Rank 21 Population % Change From 2 Rank 21 Population % Change From 2 - United States 38,745, California 37,253, Texas 25,145, New York 19,378, Florida 18,81, Illinois 12,83, Pennsylvania 12,72, Ohio 11,536, Michigan 9,883, Georgia 9,687, North Carolina 9,535, New Jersey 8,791, Virginia 8,1, Washington 6,724, Massachusetts 6,547, Indiana 6,483, Arizona 6,392, Tennessee 6,346, Missouri 5,988, Maryland 5,773, Wisconsin 5,686, Minnesota 5,33, Colorado 5,29, Alabama 4,779, South Carolina 4,625, Louisiana 4,533, Kentucky 4,339, Oregon 3,831, Oklahoma 3,751, Puerto Rico 3,725, Connecticut 3,574, Iowa 3,46, Mississippi 2,967, Arkansas 2,915, Kansas 2,853, Utah 2,763, Nevada 2,7, New Mexico 2,59, West Virginia 1,852, Nebraska 1,826, Idaho 1,567, Hawaii 1,36, Maine 1,328, New Hampshire 1,316, Rhode Island 1,52, Montana 989, Delaware 897, South Dakota 814, Alaska 71, North Dakota 672, Vermont 625, District of Columbia 61, Wyoming 563, Note: Population data for smaller geographies such as counties, cities, etc. is scheduled for release by the US Census Bureau throughout the month of February 211. New 21 US Census Data Ranked by % Change from 2 Census Rank 21 Population % Change From 2 - United States 38,745, Nevada 2,7, Arizona 6,392, Utah 2,763, Idaho 1,567, Texas 25,145, North Carolina 9,535, Georgia 9,687, Florida 18,81, Colorado 5,29, South Carolina 4,625, Delaware 897, Washington 6,724, Wyoming 563, Alaska 71, New Mexico 2,59, Virginia 8,1, Hawaii 1,36, Oregon 3,831, Tennessee 6,346, California 37,253, Montana 989, Arkansas 2,915, Maryland 5,773, Oklahoma 3,751, South Dakota 814, Minnesota 5,33, Rank 21 Population % Change From 2 27 Alabama 4,779, Kentucky 4,339, Missouri 5,988, Nebraska 1,826, Indiana 6,483, New Hampshire 1,316, Kansas 2,853, Wisconsin 5,686, District of Columbia 61, Connecticut 3,574, North Dakota 672, New Jersey 8,791, Mississippi 2,967, Maine 1,328, Iowa 3,46, Pennsylvania 12,72, Illinois 12,83, Massachusetts 6,547, Vermont 625, West Virginia 1,852, New York 19,378, Ohio 11,536, Louisiana 4,533, Rhode Island 1,52, Michigan 9,883, Puerto Rico 3,725, Note: Population data for smaller geographies such as counties, cities, etc. is scheduled for release by the US Census Bureau throughout the month of February 211. Annual Population Trend Estimates (not based on 21 Census) Broward s population grew at a strong pace throughout the 199 s and the first half of the 2 s. High housing costs and a generally high cost of living combined with a several hurricanes put a sudden stop to growth from 25 to 27. Population growth has restarted, but it is mostly due to international migration. Nielsen Claritas forecasts moderate population growth from , Annual Change in Population: Broward County 35, 33,83 36,18 3,832 25, 2,338 22,199 25,348 15, 13,214 14,844 5, 6,294-5, -4,286-15, -15,366-25, Annual Average 199 to Forecast Annual Average 21 to 215 Sources: US Census Bureau (historical data) Nielsen Claritas (forecast data). Annual Population Trend Estimates (not based on 21 Census) Annual Change in Population: Miami-Ft. Lauderdale Metro (Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach Counties) 11, 1, 9, 8, 7, 7,43 94,45 92,346 68,69 82,7 8,481 6, 5, 4, 36,569 45,299 53,387 3, 23,584 2, 1, -1, Annual Average 199 to , Forecast Annual Average 21 to 215 Sources: US Census Bureau (historical data) Nielsen Claritas (forecast data). Components of Population Change 2 to 29 Palm Beach County Broward County Miami Dade County Natural Births +136,768 Deaths -124,714 Net +12,54 Natural Births +29,17 Deaths -142,933 Net +66,174 Natural Births +33,66 Deaths -17,459 Net +133,21 Net Migration Domestic +7,853 International +64,958 Net +135,811 Total Population Change +148,76 Net Migration Domestic -52,364 International +128,311 Net +75,947 Total Population Change +143,46 Net Migration Domestic -35,624 International +328,74 Net +23,116 Total Population Change +246,839 Sources: US Census Bureau. Taxable Sales Trends for South Florida South Florida s taxable sales (which makes up approximately 4% to 45% of sales activity) peaked in 26. After declines in 27, 28 and 29, it s likely that 21 will finish with a gain of about 3% over Total Annual Taxable Sales: Broward & Palm ($ Billions) % 5. -8% % +3% ($ Billions) Monthly Total Taxable Sales Trend Total Taxable Sales for Jan-Nov 21 are tracking 2.6% higher than Jan-Nov (est) J F M A M J J A S O N D Source: The Florida Legislature, Office of Economic & Demographic Research. Unemployment Rate Trend - Broward Broward s unemployment rate tracked significantly lower than the national average for most of the 2 s. In 29, it matched the national average. Throughout 21, Broward s unemployment rate trended about 1 point higher than the national average Broward U.S. Average Annual Unemployment Rate Monthly Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate: December 21 Palm Beach County: 11.5% Broward County: 1.2% Miami-Dade County: 13.2% (est) J F M A M J J A S O N D Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Florida AIW. Inflation Rate Trend South Florida (Miami-Dade and Broward Counties) South Florida s inflation rate reached into the 6% range in the 25-6 boom years, trending significantly higher than the national average. Local and national consumer prices took a nose-dive in 28-9, resulting in a period of deflation Miami-Ft. Lauderdale U.S. Annualized Inflation : December 21 Miami-Ft. Lauderdale:.9% United States: 1.4% Inflation Deflation Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Home Sales Volume Trend -- Broward Broward s volume of single-family home sales transactions peaked in 23. Transactions dropped rapidly in as the median sales price of a home reached more than eight-times the median household income of Broward County. Sales volume rebounded somewhat in 29 and early 21, helped by vastly lower prices and a first-time-homebuyer tax credit. Volume grew in Jan, Feb, Mar and April 21, but mostly declined throughout the rest of the year. 16, 14, 13,591 13,158 14,465 15,163 14,266 Broward County 12, 11,999 11,331 1, 8, 8,373 8,816 7,997 6, 6,127 6,377 4, 2, Source: Florida Association of Realtors. Single Family Home Median Price Trend -- Broward Broward s home prices peaked in at an unsustainable ratio of 8-times the median household income. Prices dropped rapidly in 28 and 29, leveling-off at prices last seen around Although there was a modest pricing rebound in April, May and June 21, it reversed into negative territory in July and August. 21 median prices finished nearly flat to 29. $4, $35, Broward County $361,1 $367,8 $367,1 $3, $279,5 $278, $25, $228,6 $2, $17,6 $197,4 $25,7 $26,1 $15, $136,7 $148,5 $1, $5, $ Source: Florida Association of Realtors. 11 Consumer Confidence Trend - Florida Statewide consumer confidence hit a low point in June 28 amid concerns over falling home values and gas prices nearing $4 per gallon. The trendline has been very unstable since after a series of monthly ups-and-downs, April 21 came in at a 3-month high before retreating somewhat in May, June and July fueled by uncertainty about the national economy as well as the potential impact of the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. Confidence has ticked-up a few points in September and October as it became clear that most of the state would not be impacted by the oil spill. 1 9 December 21 Index = June 28 Index = 59 December 29 Index = Source: University of Florida, Bureau of Economic and Business Research. Florida s Consumer Confidence Components December 21 (Dec 29) Consumer Confidence Index 71 (69) Personal financial situation now compared to a year ago 51 (45) Personal financial situation expected one year from now 8 (8) Expected national economic conditions over the next year 65 (67) Expected national economic conditions over the next 5 years 78 (74) Is this a good time to buy major household items? 78 (75) Source: University of Florida, Bureau of Economic and Business Research. Recap South Florida s population growth rate stalled from 25 to 28, but is gradually improving. Most of South Florida s growth is due to international migration. South Florida s taxable sales were up about 3% in 21. That s the first up year since 26. Broward s unemployment rate averaged 1.2% in 21, nearly a point higher than the national average. But it s considerably lower than Miami-Dade or Palm Beach County. South Florida s inflation rate has been relatively low for the past two years, but that could change in 211. Broward s 21 home sales were nearly identical to 29 in both volume and median price. Florida s Consumer Confidence has experienced a very unsteady climb after hitting its low point in June 28.
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