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Turfgrass Fertilizer New Data for CAST 19

Turfgrass Fertilizer New Data for CAST 19 Jeff Sweeney Environmental Protection Agency Chesapeake Bay Program Office Urban Stormwater Workgroup Meeting September 17, 2019
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Turfgrass Fertilizer New Data for CAST 19 Jeff Sweeney Environmental Protection Agency Chesapeake Bay Program Office Urban Stormwater Workgroup Meeting September 17, 2019 Turfgrass Nutrient Applications Phase 6 Model Methods for the developed sector prescribe a mass of fertilizer nutrients for each state distributed to one crop type = turfgrass o o Methods capture variability among states for rural versus suburban. Using fertilizer data that has other utilities nation-wide 2 Turfgrass Nutrient Applications Phase 6 Model Source for fertilizer nutrient mass is AAPFCO with methods to fill in holes in the data, such as when a county didn t report, or the sales data were not split between Farm and Non-Farm Same source as chemical fertilizer data for agriculture sector 3 Turfgrass Nutrient Applications Phase 6 Model Two components to the application rates (lbs/acre) 1) Fertilizer mass 2) Turfgrass acres For back-cast, high-resolution land cover w/ USGS s Landsat processing center s back-casting methodology for land cover change annual Land Use Workgroup + CBP office working on land use forecast with new data 4 Turfgrass Nutrient Applications Phase 6 Model Additional credit is given for practices that make up nutrient management depending on high-risk, lowrisk, blended The USWG approved the methods to vary nutrient application on developed lands for the Phase 6 model by jurisdiction and through time, 6/21/16 o USWG will review new data at their 9/17/19 meeting 5 Turfgrass Fertilizer Nitrogen DE MD NY PA VA WV DC DE MD NY PA VA WV Linear (DE) Linear (MD) Linear (NY) Linear (PA) Linear (VA) Linear (WV) Non-Farm Nitrogen Fertilizer Sales DE MD NY PA VA WV DC Non-Farm Nitrogen Fertilizer CAST = projection Post-2013 held constant 20 Linear regression of data through 80 MD Linear (MD) Maryland Non-Farm Nitrogen Fertilizer Sales 70 PA Linear (PA) Pennsylvania Non-Farm Nitrogen Fertilizer Sales 30 VA Linear (VA) Virginia Non-Farm Nitrogen Fertilizer Sales 25 NY Linear (NY) New York Non-Farm Nitrogen Fertilizer Sales 8 DE Linear (DE) Delaware Non-Farm Nitrogen Fertilizer Sales 0.9 WV Linear (WV) West Virginia Non-Farm Nitrogen Fertilizer Sales Turfgrass Fertilizer Phosphorus DE MD NY PA VA WV DC DE MD NY PA VA WV Linear (DE) Linear (MD) Linear (NY) Linear (PA) Linear (VA) Linear (WV) Non-Farm Phosphorus Fertilizer Sales DE MD NY PA VA WV DC Non-Farm Phosphorus Fertilizer CAST Linear regression of data through = projection Post-2013 held constant 30 MD Linear (MD) Maryland Non-Farm Phosphorus Fertilizer Sales 25 PA Linear (PA) Pennsylvania Non-Farm Phosphorus Fertilizer Sales 12 VA Linear (VA) Virginia Non-Farm Phosphorus Fertilizer Sales 4.5 NY Linear (NY) New York Non-Farm Phosphorus Fertilizer Sales 2.5 DE Linear (DE) Delaware Non-Farm Phosphorus Fertilizer Sales WV Linear (WV) West Virginia Non-Farm Phosphorus Fertilizer Sales Turfgrass Nutrient Applications Phase 6 Model Urban Stormwater Workgroup will decide what trend to use that incorporates the new fertilizer data. 24 Turfgrass Nutrient Applications Phase 6 Model Changes in application rates over time (as an impact of nutrient management) would be captured by sales data. Must be an actual plan or homeowner pledge Recommendations of the Expert Panel to Define Removal Rates for Urban Nutrient Management CBP Approved Final Report by WQGIT 3/11/ Turfgrass Nutrient Applications Phase 6 Model Increasing nutrient mass on turfgrass does not necessarily mean increasing loads. Load changes primarily depend on the relationship of the rate of change of nutrient mass to the rate of change of the turfgrass acres. 26 Turfgrass Nutrient Applications From K. Berger 2)What would be the TN and TP fertilizer application rates under the proposed revisions to the AAPFCO state data? 27 Turfgrass Nutrient Applications From K. Berger 1) What are the TN and TP fertilizer application rates under the current set of AAPFCO state data? These were set in the Phase 6 model on a state-by-state basis, with each county in a state having the same application rates. (We calculated the VA, MD and DC rates below.) Jurisdiction 2018 Turfgrass Acres 2018 Urban Fertilizer N Lbs Applied 2018 N Lb/Acre 2018 Urban Fertilizer P Lbs Applied 2018 P Lb/Acre District of Columbia, DC Charles, MD Frederick, MD Montgomery, MD Prince Georges, MD Alexandria, VA Arlington, VA Fairfax City, VA Fairfax, VA Falls Church City, VA Loudoun, VA Manassas City, VA Manassas Park City, VA Prince William, VA Turfgrass Nutrient Applications From K. Berger 3) What are the sensitivities to TN and TP urban fertilizer application in the model? The sensitivity to TN urban fertilizer is relatively low (about 0.06), which means even relatively large changes in pounds applied will have a small impact on estimated urban loads. The sensitivity to TP urban fertilizer is somewhat higher ( ), which would mean changes to the TP application rate would have a bigger impact. 29 Water Quality Standards Attainment 30
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